Trans-Pacific spot rates reached a new annual high this week, with containers to the US West Coast trading at approximately $8,400 per FEU and East Coast rates hitting approximately $9,600 per FEU. Both figures reflect the combined effect of blank sailings, port congestion in Asia, and a post-Golden-Week surge in factory output that is now moving toward US ports.
These are not forecasts. These are rates being quoted and accepted in the market right now.
What is driving the spike
Golden Week in China wrapped up this past week, and factories across the country resumed full production as of October 8. The restart of manufacturing output following a national holiday typically compresses shipping windows as exporters compete for vessel space. This year, that compression is hitting a market that was already running tight on capacity due to blank sailings and ongoing congestion at major Chinese ports.
At the same time, three-week forward import projections into the Port of Long Beach are running approximately 50% above year-ago levels. That figure, reported by industry trackers for each of the next three weeks, points to a significant surge of inbound cargo that US ports, drayage networks, and inland intermodal systems will need to absorb through the rest of October.
The intermodal connection
Domestic intermodal volumes are already running about 8% above year-over-year levels, though growth has moderated slightly in recent weeks. The shift of long-haul freight from truckload to intermodal has been ongoing since mid-year, partly because fuel surcharges on trucking have made intermodal comparatively more attractive on longer lanes.
That shift puts pressure on rail capacity and drayage at inland ramps. For importers routing containers through East Coast ports like Port Newark and moving freight inland by intermodal, the combination of high ocean rates and strained drayage is compressing margins on both ends of the move.
Other developments in this week’s market
Beyond trans-Pacific rates, two additional stories are worth tracking. The Rhine River in Germany is running at historically low water levels, effectively halting loaded barge traffic at the Kaub gauge. Surcharges where service continues are reaching the equivalent of $1,350 per FEU with some carriers. If you have European suppliers shipping product through Rhine ports, expect delays and additional costs on that leg.
On the demand side, a possible US ban on diesel exports is being discussed in industry and policy circles. Analysts note that such a ban would likely redistribute price pressure rather than reduce it, easing costs in Gulf Coast and Midwest markets while raising them in regions that import refined product. Diesel nationally fell 14.7 cents in the first week of October to $6.382 per gallon after hitting a weekly record of $6.529 the prior week. Fuel costs remain structurally elevated and are unlikely to fall significantly before end of year.
What importers should be doing
With ocean rates at annual highs and US port volumes surging, the window for securing cost-effective freight arrangements is narrowing. If your Q4 import volumes are not yet covered by a freight plan, now is the moment to act.
Importers who locked in capacity ahead of peak are in a materially different position than those still booking on the spot market. At $9,600 per FEU to the East Coast, every week without a fixed arrangement is additional exposure.
Talk to the HighQ team about your Q4 import volumes and how to protect your costs as rates continue to climb. Or request a freight quote directly to get started.
FAQ
What are current trans-Pacific spot rates?As of the week of October 12, 2026, trans-Pacific spot rates are approximately $8,400 per FEU to the US West Coast and approximately $9,600 per FEU to the East Coast, both at new annual highs.
Why did rates spike in October 2026?Two main factors: blank sailings that reduced available vessel capacity, and the end of China’s Golden Week holiday on October 8, which triggered a surge in factory output and booking activity as exporters rushed containers to market.
What is the forward import outlook at US ports?Three-week forward import projections into the Port of Long Beach are running approximately 50% above year-ago levels for each of the next three weeks, pointing to a sustained surge of inbound cargo through late October.
How does the Rhine River situation affect importers?Historically low water levels at the Kaub gauge have effectively halted loaded barge traffic on the Rhine. Importers with European suppliers routing through Rhine ports face delays and surcharges of up to $1,350 per FEU where service continues.
What is happening with diesel prices?Diesel fell 14.7 cents to $6.382 per gallon in the first week of October after hitting a new weekly record of $6.529 the prior week. Fuel costs remain structurally elevated. A potential US diesel export ban is under discussion but would redistribute pressure rather than reduce it.
What should importers do right now?Secure Q4 freight capacity now rather than relying on the spot market. With rates at annual highs and volume surging into US ports, importers without covered freight arrangements are at maximum cost exposure heading into the holiday peak.
